IMF: Angola will grow 1.3% this year
"In Angola, a more expansionary fiscal perspective on the eve of this year's elections, together with an improvement in terms of trade, is expected to increase growth to 1.3 percent," write the IMF analysts.
According to the report on the "Regional Economic Outlook" for Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is, together with Nigeria and South Africa, one of the leaders of the region's growth this year, which should see its Sub-Saharan economy grow 2.6%, but the IMF stresses that each country has a specific and unrepeatable reason for contributing to the region's growth. In Angola, there is an increase in public spending in the electoral year, while in Nigeria there is an increase in the production of oil and agricultural products, and in South Africa the IMF underlines the recovery of the effects of the drought and the improvement in the trade.
Despite recovering from last year's stagnation, the Angolan economy has maintained a much below-average growth since the beginning of the decade, when the slowest expansion was 2.4% in 2009, in the midst of the global financial and economic crisis.
Among the concerns expressed by the IMF is the accumulation of arrears by the State, which analysts estimate is already worth "at least 2% of GDP". Angola was heavily affected by the drop in the price of oil since mid-2014, leading to an imbalance in the public accounts due to the decrease in tax revenues, coupled with the global economic slowdown.
"The countries most affected by this new low-price environment are still struggling with pressures on the balance of payments and budget loss," the IMF writes, noting that "with the policy adjustments to be postponed and still limited in these Countries, contagion to the non-oil sectors continues to hurt the economy. "
Luanda, 10. Mai 2017